Lokomotiv vs Rubin
- Lokomotiv47%
- Draw28%
- Rubin25%
1.37 expected goals for Lokomotiv
0.98 expected goals for Rubin
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Lokomotiv has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Rubin win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Rubin defence, which lets in 32% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Lokomotiv attack, which scores 33% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.1 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Lokomotiv
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Lokomotiv attack+33%
- Rubin defence−32%
Expected goals1.37
Rubin
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Rubin attack−8%
- Lokomotiv defence−21%
Expected goals0.98
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals90%
- Over 1.5 goals69%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- Over 3.5 goals21%
- Over 4.5 goals9%
- Both teams score51%
- Lokomotiv or draw75%
- Draw or Rubin52%
- No draw72%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.1 expected
4.7 for Lokomotiv and 4.4 for Rubin
- Over 8.5 corners53%
- Over 9.5 corners42%
- Over 10.5 corners32%
Cards
4.3 expected
2.0 for Lokomotiv and 2.2 for Rubin
- Over 3.5 cards62%
- Over 4.5 cards43%
- Over 5.5 cards26%
Shots
23.5 expected
11.2 for Lokomotiv and 12.3 for Rubin
- Over 20.5 shots66%
- Over 22.5 shots54%
- Over 24.5 shots41%
Fouls
28.4 expected
15.5 for Lokomotiv and 12.9 for Rubin
- Over 20.5 fouls92%
- Over 22.5 fouls84%
- Over 24.5 fouls74%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.