Probably Football

Matches

Premier League (Russia)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Rodina Moskva vs FC Krasnodar

  1. Rodina Moskva16%
  2. Draw22%
  3. FC Krasnodar62%

1.15 expected goals for Rodina Moskva

2.30 expected goals for FC Krasnodar

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes FC Krasnodar the clear favourite: 62% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FC Krasnodar defence, which lets in 46% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the FC Krasnodar attack, which scores 72% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 58%. And about 9.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Rodina Moskva

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Rodina Moskva attack+43%
  3. FC Krasnodar defence−46%

Expected goals1.15

FC Krasnodar

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. FC Krasnodar attack+72%
  2. Rodina Moskva defence−1%

Expected goals2.30

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals45%
  5. Over 4.5 goals27%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

4.9 for Rodina Moskva and 4.4 for FC Krasnodar

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

5.5 expected

2.8 for Rodina Moskva and 2.6 for FC Krasnodar

  1. Over 3.5 cards79%
  2. Over 4.5 cards64%
  3. Over 5.5 cards46%

Shots

26.2 expected

12.3 for Rodina Moskva and 13.9 for FC Krasnodar

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

28.6 expected

13.7 for Rodina Moskva and 14.9 for FC Krasnodar

  1. Over 20.5 fouls92%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls85%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls75%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.