Probably Football

Matches

Premier League (Russia)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Krylia Sovetov vs Zenit

  1. Krylia Sovetov12%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Zenit64%

0.79 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov

1.98 expected goals for Zenit

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Zenit the clear favourite: 64% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Zenit defence, which lets in 61% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Zenit attack, which scores 96% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Krylia Sovetov

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Krylia Sovetov attack+32%
  3. Zenit defence−61%

Expected goals0.79

Zenit

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Zenit attack+96%
  2. Krylia Sovetov defence−26%

Expected goals1.97

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.5 for Krylia Sovetov and 4.7 for Zenit

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.4 expected

1.8 for Krylia Sovetov and 2.6 for Zenit

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards44%
  3. Over 5.5 cards27%

Shots

27.0 expected

15.0 for Krylia Sovetov and 12.0 for Zenit

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots72%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

28.2 expected

15.2 for Krylia Sovetov and 13.0 for Zenit

  1. Over 20.5 fouls91%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls84%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls73%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.