Probably Football

Matches

Premier League (Russia)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Rostov

  1. Dinamo Makhachkala30%
  2. Draw30%
  3. FC Rostov40%

1.03 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala

1.32 expected goals for FC Rostov

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

FC Rostov has the edge (40%), but not by much: a draw is at 30% and a Dinamo Makhachkala win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FC Rostov defence, which lets in 34% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Dinamo Makhachkala defence, which lets in 26% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Dinamo Makhachkala

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Dinamo Makhachkala attack+4%
  3. FC Rostov defence−34%

Expected goals1.03

FC Rostov

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. FC Rostov attack+30%
  2. Dinamo Makhachkala defence−26%

Expected goals1.32

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.1 for Dinamo Makhachkala and 4.8 for FC Rostov

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.5 for Dinamo Makhachkala and 2.2 for FC Rostov

  1. Over 3.5 cards51%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

24.1 expected

13.6 for Dinamo Makhachkala and 10.5 for FC Rostov

  1. Over 20.5 shots69%
  2. Over 22.5 shots57%
  3. Over 24.5 shots45%

Fouls

25.4 expected

12.0 for Dinamo Makhachkala and 13.3 for FC Rostov

  1. Over 20.5 fouls81%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls69%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls55%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.