Saturday 31 October, 11:00
Baltika vs Akron
- Baltika60%
- Draw24%
- Akron16%
1.68 expected goals for Baltika
0.74 expected goals for Akron
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes Baltika the clear favourite: 60% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Baltika defence, which lets in 54% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Baltika attack, which scores 20% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 9.9 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Baltika
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Baltika attack+20%
- Akron defence−7%
Expected goals1.68
Akron
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Akron attack+19%
- Baltika defence−54%
Expected goals0.74
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals91%
- Over 1.5 goals70%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Over 3.5 goals23%
- Over 4.5 goals10%
- Both teams score48%
- Baltika or draw84%
- Draw or Akron40%
- No draw76%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.9 expected
5.5 for Baltika and 4.5 for Akron
- Over 8.5 corners61%
- Over 9.5 corners50%
- Over 10.5 corners40%
Cards
4.4 expected
2.0 for Baltika and 2.4 for Akron
- Over 3.5 cards64%
- Over 4.5 cards44%
- Over 5.5 cards28%
Shots
23.2 expected
12.7 for Baltika and 10.5 for Akron
- Over 20.5 shots64%
- Over 22.5 shots52%
- Over 24.5 shots39%
Fouls
26.3 expected
14.2 for Baltika and 12.0 for Akron
- Over 20.5 fouls85%
- Over 22.5 fouls74%
- Over 24.5 fouls61%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.