Probably Football

Matches

Premier League (Russia)

Saturday 24 October, 10:00

Final score

Fakel0-1Rodina Moskva

The model gave this result 31%. Its most likely result was a Fakel win (43%).

Fakel vs Rodina Moskva

  1. Fakel43%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Rodina Moskva31%

1.50 expected goals for Fakel

1.34 expected goals for Rodina Moskva

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Fakel has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Rodina Moskva win at 31%. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 10.3 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

5.5 for Fakel and 4.8 for Rodina Moskva

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.9 for Fakel and 2.0 for Rodina Moskva

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

28.2 expected

16.2 for Fakel and 12.0 for Rodina Moskva

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots77%
  3. Over 24.5 shots67%

Fouls

26.6 expected

14.4 for Fakel and 12.2 for Rodina Moskva

  1. Over 20.5 fouls86%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls76%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls63%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.