Probably Football

Matches

Challenger Pro League (Belgium)

Sporting Hasselt vs Patro Eisden

  1. Sporting Hasselt42%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Patro Eisden35%

1.72 expected goals for Sporting Hasselt

1.43 expected goals for Patro Eisden

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 42%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Patro Eisden defence, which lets in 16% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 9.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Sporting Hasselt

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Sporting Hasselt attack−2%
  3. Patro Eisden defence+16%

Expected goals1.72

Patro Eisden

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Patro Eisden attack−7%
  2. Sporting Hasselt defence+13%

Expected goals1.43

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals39%
  5. Over 4.5 goals21%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.1 expected

5.2 for Sporting Hasselt and 3.9 for Patro Eisden

  1. Over 8.5 corners53%
  2. Over 9.5 corners42%
  3. Over 10.5 corners33%

Cards

4.4 expected

2.1 for Sporting Hasselt and 2.3 for Patro Eisden

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards45%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

28.5 expected

17.4 for Sporting Hasselt and 11.1 for Patro Eisden

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots68%

Fouls

26.5 expected

12.6 for Sporting Hasselt and 13.9 for Patro Eisden

  1. Over 20.5 fouls86%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls75%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls62%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.