Probably Football

Matches

Challenger Pro League (Belgium)

Saturday 31 October, 14:00

Seraing United vs Liège

  1. Seraing United43%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Liège34%

1.81 expected goals for Seraing United

1.46 expected goals for Liège

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Seraing United has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Liège win at 34%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Liège defence, which lets in 52% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Seraing United attack, which scores 21% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 10.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Seraing United

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Seraing United attack−21%
  3. Liège defence+52%

Expected goals1.81

Liège

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Liège attack−13%
  2. Seraing United defence+24%

Expected goals1.46

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals41%
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.8 expected

5.8 for Seraing United and 5.0 for Liège

  1. Over 8.5 corners69%
  2. Over 9.5 corners59%
  3. Over 10.5 corners50%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.5 for Seraing United and 2.2 for Liège

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

25.4 expected

14.3 for Seraing United and 11.1 for Liège

  1. Over 20.5 shots75%
  2. Over 22.5 shots64%
  3. Over 24.5 shots53%

Fouls

25.2 expected

13.7 for Seraing United and 11.5 for Liège

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls68%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls53%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 02:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.