Probably Football

Matches

Challenger Pro League (Belgium)

Saturday 31 October, 14:00

Patro Eisden vs Lokeren-Temse

  1. Patro Eisden33%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Lokeren-Temse44%

1.56 expected goals for Patro Eisden

1.69 expected goals for Lokeren-Temse

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Lokeren-Temse has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Patro Eisden win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Patro Eisden defence, which lets in 19% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Lokeren-Temse defence, which lets in 17% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Patro Eisden

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Patro Eisden attack−12%
  3. Lokeren-Temse defence+17%

Expected goals1.56

Lokeren-Temse

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Lokeren-Temse attack+5%
  2. Patro Eisden defence+19%

Expected goals1.69

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals41%
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.0 expected

4.7 for Patro Eisden and 4.3 for Lokeren-Temse

  1. Over 8.5 corners51%
  2. Over 9.5 corners41%
  3. Over 10.5 corners31%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Patro Eisden and 2.3 for Lokeren-Temse

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

23.8 expected

11.4 for Patro Eisden and 12.4 for Lokeren-Temse

  1. Over 20.5 shots68%
  2. Over 22.5 shots55%
  3. Over 24.5 shots43%

Fouls

33.0 expected

16.6 for Patro Eisden and 16.3 for Lokeren-Temse

  1. Over 20.5 fouls98%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls96%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls91%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 02:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.