Saturday 31 October, 14:00

Dender vs KRC Genk II

Dender60%
Draw23%
KRC Genk II17%

2.02 expected goals for Dender

0.91 expected goals for KRC Genk II

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Dender the clear favourite: 60% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the KRC Genk II defence, which lets in 46% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Dender defence, which lets in 18% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 9.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Dender

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

Playing at home+11%
Dender attack−8%
KRC Genk II defence+46%

Expected goals2.02

KRC Genk II

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

KRC Genk II attack−18%
Dender defence−18%

Expected goals0.91

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals94%
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals34%
Over 4.5 goals17%

Both teams score57%
Dender or draw82%
Draw or KRC Genk II40%
No draw77%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.6 for Dender and 4.1 for KRC Genk II

Over 8.5 corners59%
Over 9.5 corners49%
Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.7 for Dender and 2.3 for KRC Genk II

Over 3.5 cards56%
Over 4.5 cards36%
Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

26.0 expected

17.4 for Dender and 8.5 for KRC Genk II

Over 20.5 shots77%
Over 22.5 shots66%
Over 24.5 shots54%

Fouls

26.4 expected

13.3 for Dender and 13.1 for KRC Genk II

Over 20.5 fouls85%
Over 22.5 fouls75%
Over 24.5 fouls61%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 02:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.