Probably Football

Matches

Challenger Pro League (Belgium)

Saturday 24 October, 13:00

Final score

Seraing United3-1Excelsior Virton

The model gave this result 36%. Its most likely result was a Excelsior Virton win (39%).

Seraing United vs Excelsior Virton

  1. Seraing United36%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Excelsior Virton39%

1.26 expected goals for Seraing United

1.22 expected goals for Excelsior Virton

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 10.1 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.4 for Seraing United and 4.7 for Excelsior Virton

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.7 for Seraing United and 2.5 for Excelsior Virton

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

22.6 expected

10.5 for Seraing United and 12.1 for Excelsior Virton

  1. Over 20.5 shots61%
  2. Over 22.5 shots48%
  3. Over 24.5 shots36%

Fouls

25.9 expected

13.2 for Seraing United and 12.7 for Excelsior Virton

  1. Over 20.5 fouls83%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls72%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls58%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.