Probably Football

Matches

Jupiler Pro League (Belgium)

Standard Liege vs SK Beveren

  1. Standard Liege36%
  2. Draw26%
  3. SK Beveren38%

1.33 expected goals for Standard Liege

1.38 expected goals for SK Beveren

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the SK Beveren attack, which scores 36% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Standard Liege defence, which lets in 26% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 10.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Standard Liege

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Standard Liege attack+4%
  3. SK Beveren defence−15%

Expected goals1.33

SK Beveren

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. SK Beveren attack+36%
  2. Standard Liege defence−26%

Expected goals1.37

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%
  4. Over 3.5 goals29%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

5.6 for Standard Liege and 4.9 for SK Beveren

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners56%
  3. Over 10.5 corners46%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Standard Liege and 2.3 for SK Beveren

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

27.3 expected

16.2 for Standard Liege and 11.1 for SK Beveren

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

21.0 expected

10.0 for Standard Liege and 11.0 for SK Beveren

  1. Over 20.5 fouls52%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls36%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls23%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.