Probably Football

Matches

Jupiler Pro League (Belgium)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Standard Liege vs Kortrijk

  1. Standard Liege52%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Kortrijk22%

1.57 expected goals for Standard Liege

0.85 expected goals for Kortrijk

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Standard Liege has the edge (52%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Kortrijk win at 22%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Standard Liege defence, which lets in 26% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Kortrijk attack, which scores 15% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Standard Liege

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Standard Liege attack+6%
  3. Kortrijk defence−2%

Expected goals1.57

Kortrijk

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Kortrijk attack−15%
  2. Standard Liege defence−26%

Expected goals0.86

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals70%
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.8 for Standard Liege and 4.2 for Kortrijk

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.5 for Standard Liege and 2.3 for Kortrijk

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

25.8 expected

15.3 for Standard Liege and 10.6 for Kortrijk

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots55%

Fouls

22.6 expected

10.1 for Standard Liege and 12.4 for Kortrijk

  1. Over 20.5 fouls64%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls49%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls34%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.