Probably Football

Matches

Jupiler Pro League (Belgium)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Lommel United vs Gent

  1. Lommel United24%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Gent49%

0.88 expected goals for Lommel United

1.45 expected goals for Gent

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Gent has the edge (49%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Lommel United win at 24%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Gent defence, which lets in 50% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Gent attack, which scores 26% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Lommel United

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Lommel United attack+16%
  3. Gent defence−50%

Expected goals0.88

Gent

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Gent attack+26%
  2. Lommel United defence−15%

Expected goals1.45

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals68%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.7 expected

5.0 for Lommel United and 5.7 for Gent

  1. Over 8.5 corners68%
  2. Over 9.5 corners58%
  3. Over 10.5 corners48%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.4 for Lommel United and 2.4 for Gent

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards33%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

27.3 expected

13.2 for Lommel United and 14.2 for Gent

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

20.7 expected

9.7 for Lommel United and 10.9 for Gent

  1. Over 20.5 fouls49%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls34%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls21%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.