Probably Football

Matches

Jupiler Pro League (Belgium)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp

  1. Cercle Brugge39%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Antwerp38%

1.79 expected goals for Cercle Brugge

1.76 expected goals for Antwerp

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Cercle Brugge attack, which scores 35% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Antwerp attack, which scores 19% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 61% chance, and both teams scoring, 62%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Cercle Brugge

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Cercle Brugge attack+35%
  3. Antwerp defence−12%

Expected goals1.79

Antwerp

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Antwerp attack+19%
  2. Cercle Brugge defence+9%

Expected goals1.76

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%
  3. Over 2.5 goals61%
  4. Over 3.5 goals47%
  5. Over 4.5 goals28%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

6.3 for Cercle Brugge and 3.7 for Antwerp

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.7 for Cercle Brugge and 2.4 for Antwerp

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

27.6 expected

15.8 for Cercle Brugge and 11.9 for Antwerp

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

25.9 expected

12.1 for Cercle Brugge and 13.8 for Antwerp

  1. Over 20.5 fouls83%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls72%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls58%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.