Probably Football

Matches

Jupiler Pro League (Belgium)

Saturday 24 October, 10:00

Final score

Genk2-1Standard Liege

The model's most likely result happened: a Genk win (50%).

Genk vs Standard Liege

  1. Genk50%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Standard Liege24%

1.64 expected goals for Genk

0.99 expected goals for Standard Liege

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Genk has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Standard Liege win at 24%. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.9 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals27%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

4.6 for Genk and 5.4 for Standard Liege

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.8 for Genk and 2.1 for Standard Liege

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

27.0 expected

14.8 for Genk and 12.2 for Standard Liege

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots72%
  3. Over 24.5 shots61%

Fouls

20.8 expected

11.1 for Genk and 9.8 for Standard Liege

  1. Over 20.5 fouls51%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls35%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls22%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.