Probably Football

Matches

Jupiler Pro League (Belgium)

Saturday 24 October, 10:00

Final score

Antwerp3-0Charleroi

The model gave this result 25%. Its most likely result was a Charleroi win (50%).

Antwerp vs Charleroi

  1. Antwerp25%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Charleroi50%

1.06 expected goals for Antwerp

1.67 expected goals for Charleroi

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Charleroi has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Antwerp win at 25%. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals29%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.2 for Antwerp and 4.6 for Charleroi

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.8 for Antwerp and 2.2 for Charleroi

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

29.1 expected

12.3 for Antwerp and 16.8 for Charleroi

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots71%

Fouls

25.7 expected

14.7 for Antwerp and 11.1 for Charleroi

  1. Over 20.5 fouls83%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls71%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls57%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.