Saturday 31 October, 10:00
Newcastle vs Everton
- Newcastle40%
- Draw26%
- Everton34%
1.39 expected goals for Newcastle
1.25 expected goals for Everton
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 40%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Everton defence, which lets in 56% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Newcastle attack, which scores 107% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 10.2 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Newcastle
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Newcastle attack+107%
- Everton defence−56%
Expected goals1.39
Everton
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Everton attack+58%
- Newcastle defence−42%
Expected goals1.25
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals92%
- Over 1.5 goals75%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Over 3.5 goals27%
- Over 4.5 goals13%
- Both teams score55%
- Newcastle or draw66%
- Draw or Everton60%
- No draw74%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.2 expected
5.9 for Newcastle and 4.3 for Everton
- Over 8.5 corners63%
- Over 9.5 corners53%
- Over 10.5 corners43%
Cards
4.0 expected
1.8 for Newcastle and 2.2 for Everton
- Over 3.5 cards58%
- Over 4.5 cards38%
- Over 5.5 cards22%
Shots
27.0 expected
15.0 for Newcastle and 12.0 for Everton
- Over 20.5 shots82%
- Over 22.5 shots72%
- Over 24.5 shots61%
Fouls
21.7 expected
12.0 for Newcastle and 9.8 for Everton
- Over 20.5 fouls58%
- Over 22.5 fouls42%
- Over 24.5 fouls28%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.