Probably Football

Matches

Premier League (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Manchester City vs Brighton

  1. Manchester City46%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Brighton29%

1.84 expected goals for Manchester City

1.38 expected goals for Brighton

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Manchester City has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Brighton win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Manchester City attack, which scores 230% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Brighton defence, which lets in 63% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Manchester City

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Manchester City attack+230%
  3. Brighton defence−63%

Expected goals1.84

Brighton

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Brighton attack+163%
  2. Manchester City defence−61%

Expected goals1.38

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%
  4. Over 3.5 goals40%
  5. Over 4.5 goals22%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.5 for Manchester City and 4.5 for Brighton

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.5 for Manchester City and 2.2 for Brighton

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

28.2 expected

14.9 for Manchester City and 13.3 for Brighton

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots77%
  3. Over 24.5 shots67%

Fouls

23.4 expected

10.4 for Manchester City and 13.0 for Brighton

  1. Over 20.5 fouls70%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls55%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.