Probably Football

Matches

Premier League (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Liverpool vs Arsenal

  1. Liverpool28%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Arsenal46%

1.04 expected goals for Liverpool

1.45 expected goals for Arsenal

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Arsenal has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Liverpool win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Arsenal defence, which lets in 73% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Liverpool attack, which scores 160% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Liverpool

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Liverpool attack+160%
  3. Arsenal defence−73%

Expected goals1.04

Arsenal

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Arsenal attack+132%
  2. Liverpool defence−54%

Expected goals1.45

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals72%
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%
  4. Over 3.5 goals24%
  5. Over 4.5 goals11%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.6 for Liverpool and 4.3 for Arsenal

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.5 for Liverpool and 2.2 for Arsenal

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

27.4 expected

15.1 for Liverpool and 12.3 for Arsenal

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

23.0 expected

12.7 for Liverpool and 10.2 for Arsenal

  1. Over 20.5 fouls67%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls52%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls37%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.