Probably Football

Matches

Premier League (England)

Saturday 24 October, 09:00

Final score

Crystal Palace0-2Newcastle

The model gave this result 36%. Its most likely result was a Crystal Palace win (40%).

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle

  1. Crystal Palace40%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Newcastle36%

1.83 expected goals for Crystal Palace

1.71 expected goals for Newcastle

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 62% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 10.0 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals62%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals47%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals28%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

4.9 for Crystal Palace and 5.1 for Newcastle

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.1 expected

2.0 for Crystal Palace and 2.1 for Newcastle

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

27.2 expected

13.8 for Crystal Palace and 13.4 for Newcastle

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

21.7 expected

10.9 for Crystal Palace and 10.8 for Newcastle

  1. Over 20.5 fouls58%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls42%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls28%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.