Probably Football

Matches

Premier League (England)

Saturday 24 October, 09:00

Final score

Chelsea0-2Tottenham

The model gave this result 22%. Its most likely result was a Chelsea win (56%).

Chelsea vs Tottenham

  1. Chelsea56%
  2. Draw22%
  3. Tottenham22%

2.46 expected goals for Chelsea

1.43 expected goals for Tottenham

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Chelsea the clear favourite: 56% to win. It expects 3.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 65% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 10.4 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals65%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals54%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals35%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.4 expected

5.3 for Chelsea and 5.1 for Tottenham

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners55%
  3. Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Chelsea and 2.4 for Tottenham

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

26.2 expected

14.8 for Chelsea and 11.4 for Tottenham

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

23.5 expected

11.1 for Chelsea and 12.3 for Tottenham

  1. Over 20.5 fouls70%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls56%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls41%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.