Probably Football

Matches

Premier League (England)

Saturday 24 October, 09:00

Final score

Aston Villa2-1Manchester City

The model gave this result 29%. Its most likely result was a Manchester City win (47%).

Aston Villa vs Manchester City

  1. Aston Villa29%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Manchester City47%

1.56 expected goals for Aston Villa

2.07 expected goals for Manchester City

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Manchester City has the edge (47%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Aston Villa win at 29%. It expects 3.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 63% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 9.7 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals88%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals63%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals49%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals30%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.1 for Aston Villa and 4.6 for Manchester City

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.4 expected

1.9 for Aston Villa and 2.5 for Manchester City

  1. Over 3.5 cards64%
  2. Over 4.5 cards45%
  3. Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

29.9 expected

14.6 for Aston Villa and 15.3 for Manchester City

  1. Over 20.5 shots90%
  2. Over 22.5 shots83%
  3. Over 24.5 shots75%

Fouls

24.2 expected

12.1 for Aston Villa and 12.1 for Manchester City

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls61%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls46%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.