Probably Football

Matches

Premiership (Scotland)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Motherwell vs ST Mirren

  1. Motherwell50%
  2. Draw25%
  3. ST Mirren25%

1.69 expected goals for Motherwell

1.15 expected goals for ST Mirren

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Motherwell has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a ST Mirren win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Motherwell defence, which lets in 29% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Motherwell attack, which scores 31% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Motherwell

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Motherwell attack+31%
  3. ST Mirren defence−15%

Expected goals1.69

ST Mirren

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. ST Mirren attack+20%
  2. Motherwell defence−29%

Expected goals1.15

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

5.6 for Motherwell and 4.7 for ST Mirren

  1. Over 8.5 corners65%
  2. Over 9.5 corners55%
  3. Over 10.5 corners45%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.4 for Motherwell and 2.5 for ST Mirren

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

29.1 expected

15.5 for Motherwell and 13.6 for ST Mirren

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots81%
  3. Over 24.5 shots71%

Fouls

23.1 expected

12.1 for Motherwell and 11.0 for ST Mirren

  1. Over 20.5 fouls68%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls53%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls38%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.