Probably Football

Matches

Premiership (Scotland)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone

  1. Kilmarnock36%
  2. Draw26%
  3. ST Johnstone38%

1.40 expected goals for Kilmarnock

1.43 expected goals for ST Johnstone

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the ST Johnstone defence, which lets in 24% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Kilmarnock attack, which scores 21% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Kilmarnock

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Kilmarnock attack+21%
  3. ST Johnstone defence−24%

Expected goals1.40

ST Johnstone

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. ST Johnstone attack+15%
  2. Kilmarnock defence−9%

Expected goals1.43

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals31%
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.8 expected

6.5 for Kilmarnock and 4.3 for ST Johnstone

  1. Over 8.5 corners69%
  2. Over 9.5 corners59%
  3. Over 10.5 corners49%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.5 for Kilmarnock and 2.1 for ST Johnstone

  1. Over 3.5 cards49%
  2. Over 4.5 cards29%
  3. Over 5.5 cards16%

Shots

26.2 expected

14.7 for Kilmarnock and 11.6 for ST Johnstone

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

24.2 expected

12.2 for Kilmarnock and 12.1 for ST Johnstone

  1. Over 20.5 fouls75%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls61%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls46%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.