Saturday 31 October, 10:00
Hibernian vs Dundee
- Hibernian39%
- Draw27%
- Dundee34%
1.34 expected goals for Hibernian
1.23 expected goals for Dundee
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Hibernian defence, which lets in 39% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Dundee attack, which scores 48% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 10.6 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Hibernian
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Hibernian attack+24%
- Dundee defence−28%
Expected goals1.34
Dundee
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Dundee attack+48%
- Hibernian defence−39%
Expected goals1.23
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals92%
- Over 1.5 goals73%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Over 3.5 goals26%
- Over 4.5 goals12%
- Both teams score50%
- Hibernian or draw66%
- Draw or Dundee61%
- No draw73%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.6 expected
5.7 for Hibernian and 4.9 for Dundee
- Over 8.5 corners67%
- Over 9.5 corners57%
- Over 10.5 corners47%
Cards
4.3 expected
1.8 for Hibernian and 2.5 for Dundee
- Over 3.5 cards62%
- Over 4.5 cards43%
- Over 5.5 cards26%
Shots
27.6 expected
15.9 for Hibernian and 11.7 for Dundee
- Over 20.5 shots84%
- Over 22.5 shots75%
- Over 24.5 shots64%
Fouls
24.8 expected
11.6 for Hibernian and 13.2 for Dundee
- Over 20.5 fouls78%
- Over 22.5 fouls65%
- Over 24.5 fouls51%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.