Saturday 31 October, 10:00
Falkirk vs Celtic
- Falkirk25%
- Draw22%
- Celtic53%
1.35 expected goals for Falkirk
2.02 expected goals for Celtic
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Celtic has the edge (53%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a Falkirk win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Celtic attack, which scores 133% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Celtic defence, which lets in 37% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.7 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Falkirk
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Falkirk attack+43%
- Celtic defence−37%
Expected goals1.35
Celtic
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Celtic attack+133%
- Falkirk defence−36%
Expected goals2.02
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Over 3.5 goals43%
- Over 4.5 goals25%
- Both teams score52%
- Falkirk or draw47%
- Draw or Celtic75%
- No draw78%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.7 expected
5.3 for Falkirk and 5.4 for Celtic
- Over 8.5 corners68%
- Over 9.5 corners59%
- Over 10.5 corners49%
Cards
3.8 expected
1.4 for Falkirk and 2.4 for Celtic
- Over 3.5 cards53%
- Over 4.5 cards34%
- Over 5.5 cards19%
Shots
30.6 expected
16.3 for Falkirk and 14.3 for Celtic
- Over 20.5 shots91%
- Over 22.5 shots85%
- Over 24.5 shots77%
Fouls
22.8 expected
11.5 for Falkirk and 11.2 for Celtic
- Over 20.5 fouls66%
- Over 22.5 fouls50%
- Over 24.5 fouls35%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.