Probably Football

Matches

Premiership (Scotland)

Wednesday 28 October, 14:45

Final score

ST Johnstone2-2Motherwell

The model gave this result 28%. Its most likely result was a Motherwell win (40%).

ST Johnstone vs Motherwell

  1. ST Johnstone32%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Motherwell40%

1.15 expected goals for ST Johnstone

1.30 expected goals for Motherwell

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Motherwell has the edge (40%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a ST Johnstone win at 32%. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 10.5 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

5.3 for ST Johnstone and 5.2 for Motherwell

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners56%
  3. Over 10.5 corners46%

Cards

3.3 expected

1.3 for ST Johnstone and 1.9 for Motherwell

  1. Over 3.5 cards41%
  2. Over 4.5 cards23%
  3. Over 5.5 cards11%

Shots

26.8 expected

14.5 for ST Johnstone and 12.2 for Motherwell

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

21.3 expected

9.9 for ST Johnstone and 11.4 for Motherwell

  1. Over 20.5 fouls55%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls39%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls25%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.