Probably Football

Matches

Premiership (Scotland)

Saturday 24 October, 09:00

Final score

Rangers4-0ST Johnstone

The model's most likely result happened: a Rangers win (70%).

Rangers vs ST Johnstone

  1. Rangers70%
  2. Draw19%
  3. ST Johnstone11%

2.12 expected goals for Rangers

0.82 expected goals for ST Johnstone

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Rangers the clear favourite: 70% to win. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 10.3 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals34%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.3 expected

6.3 for Rangers and 4.0 for ST Johnstone

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.6 for Rangers and 2.1 for ST Johnstone

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

27.5 expected

18.6 for Rangers and 8.9 for ST Johnstone

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

25.6 expected

13.1 for Rangers and 12.5 for ST Johnstone

  1. Over 20.5 fouls82%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls70%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls56%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.