Probably Football

Matches

J1 League (Japan)

Yokohama F. Marinos vs Kawasaki Frontale

  1. Yokohama F. Marinos40%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Kawasaki Frontale36%

1.72 expected goals for Yokohama F. Marinos

1.55 expected goals for Kawasaki Frontale

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Kawasaki Frontale attack, which scores 46% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Yokohama F. Marinos defence, which lets in 22% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 9.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Yokohama F. Marinos

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Yokohama F. Marinos attack+20%
  3. Kawasaki Frontale defence−6%

Expected goals1.72

Kawasaki Frontale

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Kawasaki Frontale attack+46%
  2. Yokohama F. Marinos defence−22%

Expected goals1.55

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals84%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals41%
  5. Over 4.5 goals23%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.2 expected

4.8 for Yokohama F. Marinos and 4.4 for Kawasaki Frontale

  1. Over 8.5 corners54%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.4 for Yokohama F. Marinos and 2.4 for Kawasaki Frontale

  1. Over 3.5 cards53%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

24.8 expected

12.7 for Yokohama F. Marinos and 12.2 for Kawasaki Frontale

  1. Over 20.5 shots73%
  2. Over 22.5 shots61%
  3. Over 24.5 shots49%

Fouls

24.1 expected

11.3 for Yokohama F. Marinos and 12.7 for Kawasaki Frontale

  1. Over 20.5 fouls74%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls60%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls45%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.