Saturday 31 October, 00:00
Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo
- Fagiano Okayama23%
- Draw26%
- FC Tokyo51%
0.93 expected goals for Fagiano Okayama
1.77 expected goals for FC Tokyo
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Fagiano Okayama
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Fagiano Okayama attack0%
- FC Tokyo defence−39%
Expected goals0.93
FC Tokyo
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- FC Tokyo attack+49%
- Fagiano Okayama defence−13%
Expected goals1.77
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals93%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Over 3.5 goals28%
- Over 4.5 goals14%
- Both teams score51%
- Fagiano Okayama or draw49%
- Draw or FC Tokyo77%
- No draw74%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.7 expected
5.1 for Fagiano Okayama and 4.6 for FC Tokyo
- Over 8.5 corners59%
- Over 9.5 corners49%
- Over 10.5 corners39%
Cards
3.7 expected
1.5 for Fagiano Okayama and 2.2 for FC Tokyo
- Over 3.5 cards50%
- Over 4.5 cards30%
- Over 5.5 cards16%
Shots
24.5 expected
11.0 for Fagiano Okayama and 13.5 for FC Tokyo
- Over 20.5 shots71%
- Over 22.5 shots60%
- Over 24.5 shots47%
Fouls
22.0 expected
11.2 for Fagiano Okayama and 10.8 for FC Tokyo
- Over 20.5 fouls60%
- Over 22.5 fouls44%
- Over 24.5 fouls30%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 12:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.