Probably Football

Matches

J1 League (Japan)

Machida Zelvia vs Gamba Osaka

  1. Machida Zelvia56%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Gamba Osaka20%

1.88 expected goals for Machida Zelvia

0.86 expected goals for Gamba Osaka

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Machida Zelvia the clear favourite: 56% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Machida Zelvia defence, which lets in 49% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Machida Zelvia attack, which scores 43% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Machida Zelvia

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Machida Zelvia attack+43%
  3. Gamba Osaka defence−13%

Expected goals1.88

Gamba Osaka

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Gamba Osaka attack+24%
  2. Machida Zelvia defence−49%

Expected goals0.86

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals29%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.0 expected

4.8 for Machida Zelvia and 4.2 for Gamba Osaka

  1. Over 8.5 corners52%
  2. Over 9.5 corners41%
  3. Over 10.5 corners32%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.4 for Machida Zelvia and 2.1 for Gamba Osaka

  1. Over 3.5 cards45%
  2. Over 4.5 cards27%
  3. Over 5.5 cards14%

Shots

24.4 expected

14.2 for Machida Zelvia and 10.3 for Gamba Osaka

  1. Over 20.5 shots71%
  2. Over 22.5 shots59%
  3. Over 24.5 shots47%

Fouls

23.4 expected

11.0 for Machida Zelvia and 12.4 for Gamba Osaka

  1. Over 20.5 fouls70%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls55%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.