Probably Football

Matches

J1 League (Japan)

Saturday 31 October, 00:00

Kyoto Sanga vs Shimizu S-pulse

  1. Kyoto Sanga48%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Shimizu S-pulse27%

1.70 expected goals for Kyoto Sanga

1.07 expected goals for Shimizu S-pulse

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Kyoto Sanga

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Kyoto Sanga attack+15%
  3. Shimizu S-pulse defence−2%

Expected goals1.70

Shimizu S-pulse

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Shimizu S-pulse attack−20%
  2. Kyoto Sanga defence−2%

Expected goals1.07

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

5.0 for Kyoto Sanga and 4.5 for Shimizu S-pulse

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

3.3 expected

1.3 for Kyoto Sanga and 2.1 for Shimizu S-pulse

  1. Over 3.5 cards43%
  2. Over 4.5 cards24%
  3. Over 5.5 cards12%

Shots

23.3 expected

12.0 for Kyoto Sanga and 11.3 for Shimizu S-pulse

  1. Over 20.5 shots65%
  2. Over 22.5 shots52%
  3. Over 24.5 shots40%

Fouls

24.1 expected

13.6 for Kyoto Sanga and 10.5 for Shimizu S-pulse

  1. Over 20.5 fouls74%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls60%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls45%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 12:02 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.