Saturday 31 October, 02:00
Kashiwa Reysol vs Urawa
- Kashiwa Reysol49%
- Draw23%
- Urawa28%
1.98 expected goals for Kashiwa Reysol
1.29 expected goals for Urawa
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Kashiwa Reysol
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Kashiwa Reysol attack+53%
- Urawa defence−15%
Expected goals1.97
Urawa
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Urawa attack+20%
- Kashiwa Reysol defence−21%
Expected goals1.29
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Over 3.5 goals41%
- Over 4.5 goals23%
- Both teams score56%
- Kashiwa Reysol or draw72%
- Draw or Urawa51%
- No draw77%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.2 expected
4.7 for Kashiwa Reysol and 4.5 for Urawa
- Over 8.5 corners54%
- Over 9.5 corners43%
- Over 10.5 corners33%
Cards
3.3 expected
1.4 for Kashiwa Reysol and 1.9 for Urawa
- Over 3.5 cards42%
- Over 4.5 cards23%
- Over 5.5 cards11%
Shots
24.2 expected
12.0 for Kashiwa Reysol and 12.2 for Urawa
- Over 20.5 shots70%
- Over 22.5 shots58%
- Over 24.5 shots45%
Fouls
20.1 expected
10.8 for Kashiwa Reysol and 9.3 for Urawa
- Over 20.5 fouls45%
- Over 22.5 fouls30%
- Over 24.5 fouls18%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 14:03 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.