Probably Football

Matches

J1 League (Japan)

Saturday 24 October, 05:00

Final score

Cerezo Osaka2-2JEF United Chiba

The model gave this result 22%. Its most likely result was a Cerezo Osaka win (55%).

Cerezo Osaka vs JEF United Chiba

  1. Cerezo Osaka55%
  2. Draw22%
  3. JEF United Chiba23%

2.15 expected goals for Cerezo Osaka

1.15 expected goals for JEF United Chiba

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Cerezo Osaka the clear favourite: 55% to win. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 10.2 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals42%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals24%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.5 for Cerezo Osaka and 4.7 for JEF United Chiba

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

4.1 expected

2.0 for Cerezo Osaka and 2.1 for JEF United Chiba

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

26.2 expected

15.4 for Cerezo Osaka and 10.7 for JEF United Chiba

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

22.0 expected

9.5 for Cerezo Osaka and 12.6 for JEF United Chiba

  1. Over 20.5 fouls60%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls45%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls30%

Saved before kickoff, on 23 October at 07:08 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.