Probably Football

Matches

J1 League (Japan)

Wednesday 21 October, 05:00

Final score

V-varen Nagasaki4-0Sanfrecce Hiroshima

The model gave this result 18%. Its most likely result was a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win (58%).

V-varen Nagasaki vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

  1. V-varen Nagasaki18%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Sanfrecce Hiroshima58%

0.77 expected goals for V-varen Nagasaki

2.00 expected goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the clear favourite: 58% to win. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 9.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

4.8 for V-varen Nagasaki and 5.1 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.9 for V-varen Nagasaki and 1.9 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

26.8 expected

10.8 for V-varen Nagasaki and 16.1 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

21.5 expected

10.8 for V-varen Nagasaki and 10.7 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima

  1. Over 20.5 fouls56%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls40%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls27%

Saved before kickoff, on 20 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.