Probably Football

Matches

J1 League (Japan)

Wednesday 21 October, 05:00

Final score

Shimizu S-pulse0-5Machida Zelvia

The model's most likely result happened: a Machida Zelvia win (51%).

Shimizu S-pulse vs Machida Zelvia

  1. Shimizu S-pulse21%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Machida Zelvia51%

0.69 expected goals for Shimizu S-pulse

1.45 expected goals for Machida Zelvia

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Machida Zelvia has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Shimizu S-pulse win at 21%. It expects 2.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance, and both teams scoring, 47%. And about 9.6 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals88%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals64%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals43%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals17%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals7%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.0 for Shimizu S-pulse and 4.6 for Machida Zelvia

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.9 for Shimizu S-pulse and 1.8 for Machida Zelvia

  1. Over 3.5 cards49%
  2. Over 4.5 cards30%
  3. Over 5.5 cards16%

Shots

24.5 expected

12.6 for Shimizu S-pulse and 11.9 for Machida Zelvia

  1. Over 20.5 shots71%
  2. Over 22.5 shots59%
  3. Over 24.5 shots47%

Fouls

23.0 expected

11.6 for Shimizu S-pulse and 11.4 for Machida Zelvia

  1. Over 20.5 fouls68%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls52%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls37%

Saved before kickoff, on 20 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.