Wednesday 21 October, 05:00
Final score
Nagoya Grampus1-1Cerezo Osaka
The model gave this result 24%. Its most likely result was a Nagoya Grampus win (39%).
Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka
- Nagoya Grampus39%
- Draw24%
- Cerezo Osaka37%
1.77 expected goals for Nagoya Grampus
1.63 expected goals for Cerezo Osaka
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
A very open match: no result goes above 39%. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 9.6 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals86%It happened
- Over 2.5 goals55%It did not happen
- Over 3.5 goals44%It did not happen
- Over 4.5 goals26%It did not happen
- Both teams score57%
- Nagoya Grampus or draw63%
- Draw or Cerezo Osaka61%
- No draw76%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.6 expected
5.6 for Nagoya Grampus and 4.1 for Cerezo Osaka
- Over 8.5 corners58%
- Over 9.5 corners48%
- Over 10.5 corners38%
Cards
3.8 expected
1.8 for Nagoya Grampus and 2.0 for Cerezo Osaka
- Over 3.5 cards52%
- Over 4.5 cards32%
- Over 5.5 cards18%
Shots
24.8 expected
13.6 for Nagoya Grampus and 11.2 for Cerezo Osaka
- Over 20.5 shots73%
- Over 22.5 shots61%
- Over 24.5 shots49%
Fouls
22.6 expected
10.6 for Nagoya Grampus and 12.1 for Cerezo Osaka
- Over 20.5 fouls65%
- Over 22.5 fouls49%
- Over 24.5 fouls35%
Saved before kickoff, on 20 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.