Saturday 31 October, 11:00

BSC Young Boys vs FC Zurich

BSC Young Boys66%
Draw21%
FC Zurich13%

3.27 expected goals for BSC Young Boys

1.37 expected goals for FC Zurich

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes BSC Young Boys the clear favourite: 66% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the BSC Young Boys attack, which scores 101% more goals than an average team. It expects 4.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 75% chance, and both teams scoring, 66%. And about 9.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

BSC Young Boys

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

Playing at home+11%
BSC Young Boys attack+101%
FC Zurich defence+8%

Expected goals3.27

FC Zurich

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

FC Zurich attack+5%
BSC Young Boys defence−4%

Expected goals1.37

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals99%
Over 1.5 goals95%
Over 2.5 goals75%
Over 3.5 goals68%
Over 4.5 goals49%

Both teams score66%
BSC Young Boys or draw87%
Draw or FC Zurich34%
No draw79%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.6 for BSC Young Boys and 4.1 for FC Zurich

Over 8.5 corners59%
Over 9.5 corners48%
Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for BSC Young Boys and 2.3 for FC Zurich

Over 3.5 cards61%
Over 4.5 cards41%
Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

29.0 expected

17.8 for BSC Young Boys and 11.2 for FC Zurich

Over 20.5 shots87%
Over 22.5 shots80%
Over 24.5 shots70%

Fouls

23.0 expected

12.2 for BSC Young Boys and 10.8 for FC Zurich

Over 20.5 fouls67%
Over 22.5 fouls52%
Over 24.5 fouls37%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.