Probably Football

Matches

Super League (Switzerland)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

FC ST. Gallen vs Servette FC

  1. FC ST. Gallen39%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Servette FC34%

1.47 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen

1.39 expected goals for Servette FC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 39%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Servette FC defence, which lets in 21% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the FC ST. Gallen attack, which scores 24% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 60%. And about 11.3 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

FC ST. Gallen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. FC ST. Gallen attack+24%
  3. Servette FC defence−21%

Expected goals1.47

Servette FC

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Servette FC attack+17%
  2. FC ST. Gallen defence−12%

Expected goals1.39

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.3 expected

7.2 for FC ST. Gallen and 4.1 for Servette FC

  1. Over 8.5 corners73%
  2. Over 9.5 corners64%
  3. Over 10.5 corners54%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.7 for FC ST. Gallen and 2.5 for Servette FC

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

29.8 expected

19.1 for FC ST. Gallen and 10.7 for Servette FC

  1. Over 20.5 shots89%
  2. Over 22.5 shots82%
  3. Over 24.5 shots73%

Fouls

29.7 expected

17.2 for FC ST. Gallen and 12.5 for Servette FC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls94%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls89%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls80%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.