Probably Football

Matches

Super League (Switzerland)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893

  1. FC Lugano74%
  2. Draw19%
  3. FC Basel 18937%

3.22 expected goals for FC Lugano

0.88 expected goals for FC Basel 1893

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes FC Lugano the clear favourite: 74% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FC Lugano attack, which scores 106% more goals than an average team. Next comes the FC Lugano defence, which lets in 38% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 4.1 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 69% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

FC Lugano

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. FC Lugano attack+106%
  3. FC Basel 1893 defence+4%

Expected goals3.22

FC Basel 1893

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. FC Basel 1893 attack+5%
  2. FC Lugano defence−38%

Expected goals0.88

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals92%
  3. Over 2.5 goals69%
  4. Over 3.5 goals58%
  5. Over 4.5 goals39%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.5 for FC Lugano and 4.4 for FC Basel 1893

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.7 expected

2.4 for FC Lugano and 2.3 for FC Basel 1893

  1. Over 3.5 cards69%
  2. Over 4.5 cards51%
  3. Over 5.5 cards33%

Shots

33.0 expected

22.2 for FC Lugano and 10.8 for FC Basel 1893

  1. Over 20.5 shots94%
  2. Over 22.5 shots89%
  3. Over 24.5 shots82%

Fouls

24.9 expected

12.9 for FC Lugano and 11.9 for FC Basel 1893

  1. Over 20.5 fouls78%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls65%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls51%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.