Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Lausanne vs FC Thun

Lausanne30%
Draw27%
FC Thun43%

1.11 expected goals for Lausanne

1.64 expected goals for FC Thun

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

FC Thun has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Lausanne win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Lausanne attack, which scores 30% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the FC Thun attack, which scores 25% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Lausanne

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

Playing at home+11%
Lausanne attack−30%
FC Thun defence+4%

Expected goals1.11

FC Thun

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

FC Thun attack+25%
Lausanne defence−3%

Expected goals1.64

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals93%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Over 3.5 goals30%
Over 4.5 goals14%

Both teams score59%
Lausanne or draw57%
Draw or FC Thun70%
No draw73%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.3 for Lausanne and 4.6 for FC Thun

Over 8.5 corners61%
Over 9.5 corners50%
Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.8 for Lausanne and 2.4 for FC Thun

Over 3.5 cards61%
Over 4.5 cards42%
Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

27.6 expected

13.8 for Lausanne and 13.8 for FC Thun

Over 20.5 shots84%
Over 22.5 shots75%
Over 24.5 shots64%

Fouls

29.5 expected

13.5 for Lausanne and 16.0 for FC Thun

Over 20.5 fouls94%
Over 22.5 fouls88%
Over 24.5 fouls79%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.