Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Grasshoppers vs FC Vaduz

Grasshoppers32%
Draw26%
FC Vaduz42%

1.29 expected goals for Grasshoppers

1.75 expected goals for FC Vaduz

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

FC Vaduz has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Grasshoppers win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Grasshoppers attack, which scores 17% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 60%. And about 10.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Grasshoppers

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

Playing at home+11%
Grasshoppers attack−17%
FC Vaduz defence+3%

Expected goals1.29

FC Vaduz

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

FC Vaduz attack+13%
Grasshoppers defence+14%

Expected goals1.75

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals95%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals36%
Over 4.5 goals19%

Both teams score60%
Grasshoppers or draw58%
Draw or FC Vaduz68%
No draw74%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

5.8 for Grasshoppers and 4.7 for FC Vaduz

Over 8.5 corners66%
Over 9.5 corners56%
Over 10.5 corners46%

Cards

4.4 expected

1.9 for Grasshoppers and 2.5 for FC Vaduz

Over 3.5 cards64%
Over 4.5 cards45%
Over 5.5 cards28%

Shots

32.0 expected

16.7 for Grasshoppers and 15.3 for FC Vaduz

Over 20.5 shots93%
Over 22.5 shots88%
Over 24.5 shots82%

Fouls

26.1 expected

13.2 for Grasshoppers and 12.8 for FC Vaduz

Over 20.5 fouls84%
Over 22.5 fouls73%
Over 24.5 fouls59%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.