FC Thun vs FC Lugano

FC Thun20%
Draw23%
FC Lugano57%

1.09 expected goals for FC Thun

2.90 expected goals for FC Lugano

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes FC Lugano the clear favourite: 57% to win. It expects 4.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 68% chance, and both teams scoring, 61%. And about 10.0 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals98%It happened
Over 1.5 goals91%It happened
Over 2.5 goals68%It happened
Over 3.5 goals56%It happened
Over 4.5 goals37%It happened

Both teams score61%
FC Thun or draw43%
Draw or FC Lugano80%
No draw77%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.1 for FC Thun and 4.9 for FC Lugano

Over 8.5 corners62%
Over 9.5 corners52%
Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.1 for FC Thun and 2.2 for FC Lugano

Over 3.5 cards62%
Over 4.5 cards43%
Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

30.0 expected

12.5 for FC Thun and 17.4 for FC Lugano

Over 20.5 shots89%
Over 22.5 shots83%
Over 24.5 shots74%

Fouls

25.6 expected

14.8 for FC Thun and 10.8 for FC Lugano

Over 20.5 fouls82%
Over 22.5 fouls70%
Over 24.5 fouls56%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.