Toulouse vs Strasbourg
- Toulouse35%
- Draw24%
- Strasbourg41%
1.60 expected goals for Toulouse
1.74 expected goals for Strasbourg
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 41%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Strasbourg attack, which scores 110% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Toulouse defence, which lets in 39% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 8.6 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Toulouse
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Toulouse attack+57%
- Strasbourg defence−33%
Expected goals1.60
Strasbourg
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Strasbourg attack+110%
- Toulouse defence−39%
Expected goals1.74
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Over 3.5 goals43%
- Over 4.5 goals24%
- Both teams score56%
- Toulouse or draw59%
- Draw or Strasbourg65%
- No draw75%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
8.6 expected
4.9 for Toulouse and 3.7 for Strasbourg
- Over 8.5 corners47%
- Over 9.5 corners37%
- Over 10.5 corners27%
Cards
4.0 expected
1.8 for Toulouse and 2.2 for Strasbourg
- Over 3.5 cards57%
- Over 4.5 cards37%
- Over 5.5 cards21%
Shots
24.7 expected
13.8 for Toulouse and 10.8 for Strasbourg
- Over 20.5 shots72%
- Over 22.5 shots61%
- Over 24.5 shots48%
Fouls
24.4 expected
12.3 for Toulouse and 12.1 for Strasbourg
- Over 20.5 fouls76%
- Over 22.5 fouls62%
- Over 24.5 fouls48%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.