Saturday 31 October, 11:00
Nice vs Rennes
- Nice29%
- Draw25%
- Rennes46%
1.29 expected goals for Nice
1.72 expected goals for Rennes
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Rennes has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Nice win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Rennes attack, which scores 125% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Nice defence, which lets in 44% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 10.0 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Nice
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Nice attack+31%
- Rennes defence−35%
Expected goals1.29
Rennes
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Rennes attack+125%
- Nice defence−44%
Expected goals1.72
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals95%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Over 3.5 goals36%
- Over 4.5 goals19%
- Both teams score57%
- Nice or draw54%
- Draw or Rennes71%
- No draw75%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.0 expected
5.3 for Nice and 4.7 for Rennes
- Over 8.5 corners62%
- Over 9.5 corners52%
- Over 10.5 corners42%
Cards
4.2 expected
1.9 for Nice and 2.4 for Rennes
- Over 3.5 cards61%
- Over 4.5 cards41%
- Over 5.5 cards25%
Shots
25.3 expected
12.4 for Nice and 12.9 for Rennes
- Over 20.5 shots75%
- Over 22.5 shots64%
- Over 24.5 shots52%
Fouls
22.1 expected
11.0 for Nice and 11.1 for Rennes
- Over 20.5 fouls60%
- Over 22.5 fouls45%
- Over 24.5 fouls30%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.