Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 1 (France)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Lorient vs Stade Brestois 29

  1. Lorient48%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Stade Brestois 2926%

1.61 expected goals for Lorient

1.06 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Lorient has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Stade Brestois 29 win at 26%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Lorient defence, which lets in 52% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Stade Brestois 29 attack, which scores 63% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 8.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Lorient

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Lorient attack+53%
  3. Stade Brestois 29 defence−30%

Expected goals1.61

Stade Brestois 29

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Stade Brestois 29 attack+63%
  2. Lorient defence−52%

Expected goals1.06

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.9 expected

4.8 for Lorient and 4.1 for Stade Brestois 29

  1. Over 8.5 corners51%
  2. Over 9.5 corners40%
  3. Over 10.5 corners31%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.5 for Lorient and 2.2 for Stade Brestois 29

  1. Over 3.5 cards51%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

25.1 expected

13.1 for Lorient and 12.0 for Stade Brestois 29

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots63%
  3. Over 24.5 shots51%

Fouls

25.7 expected

11.2 for Lorient and 14.5 for Stade Brestois 29

  1. Over 20.5 fouls82%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls71%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls57%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.