Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 1 (France)

Sunday 25 October, 14:45

Final score

Paris Saint Germain2-0Lyon

The model's most likely result happened: a Paris Saint Germain win (66%).

Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon

  1. Paris Saint Germain66%
  2. Draw19%
  3. Lyon15%

2.54 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain

0.99 expected goals for Lyon

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Paris Saint Germain the clear favourite: 66% to win. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 9.6 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals47%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals28%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.6 for Paris Saint Germain and 4.1 for Lyon

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.4 for Paris Saint Germain and 2.1 for Lyon

  1. Over 3.5 cards47%
  2. Over 4.5 cards28%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

30.3 expected

18.5 for Paris Saint Germain and 11.8 for Lyon

  1. Over 20.5 shots90%
  2. Over 22.5 shots84%
  3. Over 24.5 shots75%

Fouls

20.9 expected

9.8 for Paris Saint Germain and 11.1 for Lyon

  1. Over 20.5 fouls51%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls35%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls22%

Saved before kickoff, on 25 October at 07:17 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.