Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 1 (France)

Saturday 24 October, 10:00

Final score

Toulouse0-0Estac Troyes

The model gave this result 24%. Its most likely result was a Toulouse win (50%).

Toulouse vs Estac Troyes

  1. Toulouse50%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Estac Troyes26%

1.94 expected goals for Toulouse

1.26 expected goals for Estac Troyes

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Toulouse has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Estac Troyes win at 26%. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 9.5 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%It did not happen
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals40%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals22%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

4.5 for Toulouse and 5.0 for Estac Troyes

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.9 for Toulouse and 2.0 for Estac Troyes

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards35%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

27.7 expected

14.6 for Toulouse and 13.1 for Estac Troyes

  1. Over 20.5 shots84%
  2. Over 22.5 shots75%
  3. Over 24.5 shots65%

Fouls

26.9 expected

14.2 for Toulouse and 12.7 for Estac Troyes

  1. Over 20.5 fouls87%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls78%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls65%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.