Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 1 (France)

Saturday 24 October, 10:00

Final score

Lens2-1Paris FC

The model's most likely result happened: a Lens win (42%).

Lens vs Paris FC

  1. Lens42%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Paris FC33%

1.60 expected goals for Lens

1.36 expected goals for Paris FC

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Lens has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Paris FC win at 33%. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 9.4 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals34%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.4 for Lens and 4.0 for Paris FC

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.8 for Lens and 2.0 for Paris FC

  1. Over 3.5 cards53%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

25.0 expected

12.9 for Lens and 12.1 for Paris FC

  1. Over 20.5 shots74%
  2. Over 22.5 shots62%
  3. Over 24.5 shots50%

Fouls

24.0 expected

11.0 for Lens and 13.1 for Paris FC

  1. Over 20.5 fouls74%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls60%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls45%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.